"Stable 1 million" and "50% chance to get 100 million": your choice reveals what kind of life you live

Wen / CaiMa

Recently inKnowI saw a hot topic: "1 million and 50% chance to get 100 million, which would you choose?"be carefulWhat we're talking about here isdollar

The reason why this problem can cause heated debate is that it takes advantage of people's understanding ofwealthInstinctive yearning.

At the same time, this involves aprobabilitythinking, 100% of $1 million and 50% of the chance of $100 million are equivalent to using $1 million to buy a 100 million chance, 50%Odds , thisbusinessaboutinvestmentIt's very cost-effective.

If only from the perspective of probability thinking, you can choose the second without thinking: 50% chance to get 100 million.

But the seemingly simple problem makes it difficult for people to choose. Why?

Because man is the product of the environmentmatter, talking about choice out of context is playing hooligans.

Everyone's choice is based on their own situation and makes what they think is most suitable for themselves, not the so-called best.

Therefore, how to choose is not high or low in thinking, nor right or wrong.

Now let's see what people make different choices on this issue.

1. Choose one million people

As mentioned above, the choice depends on the situation, so what situation will people choose 1 million?

The answer is obvious. There are three situations:

1. There are no 1 million people

No 1 million people will think about whether they have made 1 millionabilityas well asneedHow long will it take?

be carefulHere isdollar, according to recentexchange rateTo convert, one million US dollars is about 6.38 millionRMB

Given the chance of getting 6.38 million yuan with 100% certainty, looking at this multiple-choice question, I believe most people will get $1 million.

It's easy to understand, because there's one thing in human nature calledloss aversion psychology, if you have thisOptionIn this case, 50% of the pain of losing 100 million will be much greater than the happiness of getting 1 million. Therefore, the vast majority of people will choose to take 1 million.

2. People in urgent need of money now.

For a man with a good life and an annual salary of millionsenterpriseExecutive, $1 million is just a few years for himwages

But for a person who waits for rice and money to cure a disease, a million dollars is stablehappiness, even if we give up the possible wealth for this, and have life-saving money, so we have security, which is the most important thing at present.

3. Contented people / life haswealthPeople who pursue outside.

There are two kinds of people who will choose 100% of 1 million, that is, people who are content and happy and people who pursue in addition to wealth in life.

For those who are content, one milliondollarAbout 6.38 millionRMB, this is a large sum of money, which is enough for ordinary people to have a good life for the rest of their life, and more possible happiness brought by 100 million wealth,Marginal effectIs decreasing.

For those who pursue wealth in addition to wealth, one million US dollars is enough to achieve wealth balance,workFree, you can take this money to do what you really want to do and pursue the life you really want.

From the above, we can see that there are different reasons for choosing 1 million people in different situations. All are based on needs, selected from the heart, and reap stable happiness.

2. Choose people who have a 50% chance of winning 100 million

So what are the reasons for choosing 50%?

1. People with $1 million or more

As mentioned above, for a man with a good life and an annual salary of millionsenterpriseExecutive, $1 million is just a few years for himwages

In other words, for people who already have more than $1 million, the more wealth they have, choose 50% to get $100 millionprobabilityThe bigger,

This is like the richest man in ChinaWang JianlinA famous saying of: set a small goal that can be achieved firsttargetLet's say I earn it 100 million first.

One hundred million is just a small goal for Wang Jianlin; For ordinary people, it is a big goal that may be difficult to reach in a lifetime.

So ownwealthMore, 1 milliondollarThe less attractive it is to them, and choosing 50% of one hundred million may be just a happy experience for them. This experience itself is a kind of happinessvalue

Even if he doesn't win the lottery, it will have little impact on his life. As the only experiencer, no one is luckier than him from this point of view alone.

2. YesbusinessIntelligent person

For a business minded person, whether he has $1 million or not, he will not miss such an opportunity.

They will flexibly use their wisdom and think about a variety of ways that are beneficial to themselvesSpread risk, let yourself take responsibility wiselyriskIn exchange for much more than $1 millionprofit

If there is a 50% chance of getting 100 million, we can have two choices: choose by ourselves or let others choose.

If you choose, the result is nothing more than the two choices mentioned above; If you let others choose, putOptiontransfer the possession ofGive more toleranceabilityPeople.

Following referencesKnowuserWang's thoughts and suggestions:

50% ofprobabilityIf you get 100 million, the value of the probability is 50 million.

1. We can buy 20 million (or less)Price)Sell.

2. Let's expand again. We split the 100 million probability option into a down payment of 1 million and sell it to n people, asking to share it with the person who won the prize.

3. Further, we cut the 100 million option into 2 yuan pieces, 50 million pieces at a timeretail。 Yes, it's a lottery. Compared with the second way, individuals take less risks and gain more.

4. In view of the success of 3business model, began to raise the next 100 million as the first prize to make it a business.

If you continue to expand: YesPEPrivate placement), the valuation has increased to billions or even tens of billions.

There are even ways to make money through live broadcasting in exchange for traffic, as long as youbusinessThe mind is developed enough, only unexpected, not impossible.

To sum up, it can be seen that 50% of the people who get the chance of 100 million are themselveswealthEnough, just to get a happy experience and choose life; Or they have developed business minds and can create business territory intelligently.

3. Know what you want, and different choices have a good future

One million in the eyes of different peopledollarIs not equivalent.

actuallyThis question is mainly to measure the impact of 1 million on your life. If the impact is great, choosing $1 million is the best choice.

If not, 50%probabilityWhat does it matter to bet a hundred million?

Just likeKnowThe next highly praised answer to this question is:

"When it's hard for you to make a choice, instead of measuring everything with one number, you'd better believe that your subjective feelings can be acceptedhappinessPeople who care for them usually know their lifetargetWhat is it, and know how to choose a good reference appropriatelymatter。”

Happiness ≠ wealth. If you want to be content and happy, choose from your heart and harvest stable happiness;

If you want to win wealth in life, use wisdom to seize opportunities!

thinkingNo high or low, know what you want, and different choices have a good future.

This article isMBA think tankOriginal launch, reprint, please contact us. Author: CaiMa. A hobby researchInvestment and Financingoffull-timeMom, create a valuation formula to make the valuation no longer artistic and help Xiaobai get started easilyinvestmentWeChatpublicNo.: CaiMavalueReincarnation MBA think tank——controllerProfessional learning and growth platform, both hot and dry goods, topAdministrationknowledgeAdvanced workplace guide.APP, headline numbermicro-blog@MBA think tank.


Statement: This article only represents the author's point of view, not the position of MBA think tank.
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